Northampton vs York – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Northampton take on York.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Northampton host York at Sixfields Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 41. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 13 April 2027 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Northampton have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Sixfields Stadium this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
York — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York away from home this season: 0W 3D 2L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour York — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Northampton have won 0, York 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Northampton in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
York in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 40% versus York 70%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Northampton 10% | York 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 0.93 xG and York 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.625 / defence 0.999 | York attack 0.833 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Northampton's attack strength of 0.625 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Northampton games / 10 York games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 33% | Draw 38% | York 29%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 3.03 | Draw 2.63 | York 3.45. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. This conflicts with form data: Northampton 50% | York 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs York | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Apr 2027, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 33% | Draw 38% | York 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 37% | xG Northampton 0.93 / York 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.625 / def 0.999 | York attack 0.833 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.85
York xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs York kick off?
Northampton vs York is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 13 April 2027 at Sixfields Stadium.
Where is Northampton vs York being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs York part of?
Northampton vs York is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs York?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 33% chance of winning, York a 29% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs York?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Northampton and York will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs York have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and York?
Record (1 meetings): Northampton 0W | Draws 1 | York 0W.
What form are Northampton and York in?
Northampton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. York (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Northampton's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against York's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, York's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
2.99
38%
2.67
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.78
0.85
York xG
2.99
33%
Home win
2.67
38%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs York?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Northampton and York expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Northampton and 0.85 for York, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs York?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 4D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, York sit at 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for York is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Northampton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Northampton's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, York have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of York's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; York are on 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. York's attacking output running into Northampton's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: York in 70%.
Last 10 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
York
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and York in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while York have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or York away?
Northampton's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.00 PPG; York away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Northampton or York been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, York in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Northampton
1
Draws
0
York
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and York?
From 1 meetings on record, Northampton have won 0, York have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and York last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when York 1-1 Northampton.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
York are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 40%, York 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Northampton and 20% for York.
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Northampton have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / York away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play York?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Northampton's games and 80% of York's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Northampton vs York usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Northampton's recent games and 20% of York's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and York tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, York in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.