Chesterfield vs Crawley Town – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Chesterfield at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chesterfield vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 41 sees Crawley Town travel to SMH Group Stadium to take on Chesterfield. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 13 April 2027, 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chesterfield stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chesterfield, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chesterfield's home record at SMH Group Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Crawley Town — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Chesterfield have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chesterfield, 0 for Crawley Town and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chesterfield trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Crawley Town trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chesterfield 60% versus Crawley Town 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chesterfield 46% | Crawley Town 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 2.02 xG and Crawley Town 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 1.232 / defence 1.091 | Crawley Town attack 1.035 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Chesterfield's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Chesterfield games / 55 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 56% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Crawley Town 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Chesterfield (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chesterfield as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Chesterfield 50% | Crawley Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Apr 2027, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 56% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Chesterfield 2.02 / Crawley Town 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 1.232 / def 1.091 | Crawley Town attack 1.035 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Crawley Town xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chesterfield vs Crawley Town kick off?
Chesterfield vs Crawley Town is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 13 April 2027 at SMH Group Stadium.
Where is Chesterfield vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Crawley Town part of?
Chesterfield vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 56% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Chesterfield and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Chesterfield vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Crawley Town?
Record (3 meetings): Chesterfield 0W | Draws 3 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Chesterfield and Crawley Town in?
Chesterfield (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chesterfield's attack rating (1.23) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Chesterfield's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.08
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
3.17
1.15
Crawley Town xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
3%
38.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.15 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Chesterfield have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 22W 20D 13L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chesterfield is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 9W 18D 28L from 55 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chesterfield are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crawley Town.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chesterfield have posted 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (11W 10D 6L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 4W 7D 16L from 27 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chesterfield come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chesterfield are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 0.96 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chesterfield have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chesterfield and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Chesterfield have gone 22W 20D 13L in their last 55 games (1.56 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 18D 28L in their last 55 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chesterfield at home or Crawley Town away?
Chesterfield's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chesterfield at home: 1.59 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chesterfield and Crawley Town runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chesterfield
3
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Crawley Town?
From 3 meetings on record, Chesterfield have won 0, Crawley Town have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Crawley Town 2-2 Chesterfield.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chesterfield 56%, Crawley Town 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Chesterfield) and 48% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chesterfield play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Chesterfield's recent matches and 44% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chesterfield vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Chesterfield's recent games and 48% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chesterfield and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Chesterfield have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.