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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Tranmere run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Newport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tranmere beat Newport County 1-4 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 46, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.39 xG and Tranmere 0.99 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Tranmere outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Tranmere attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 46% | Draw 28% | Tranmere 26%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Tranmere win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 58%, Tranmere 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newport County 1.14 PPG, Tranmere 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tranmere win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tranmere (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights