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Prediction vindicated as Swindon Town edge out Newport County 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town beat Newport County 0-1 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.20 xG and Swindon Town 2.19 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Newport County fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Swindon Town landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.90 / defence 1.32 against Swindon Town attack 1.41 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 20% | Draw 20% | Swindon Town 60%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 57%, Swindon Town 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Swindon Town's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Swindon Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights