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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

League Two · Regular Season - 11

Kick-off

Sat 4 Oct 2025

12:30

Venue

Rodney Parade

Competition

League Two

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Swindon Town Win

20%

Newport County

4.98

20%

Draw

4.98

60%

Swindon Town

1.67

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 2

9.7%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

8.9%

Draw

0 – 2

8.1%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.20

Newport County xG

Total xG

3.39

2.19

Swindon Town xG

20%
20%
60%
Newport CountyDrawSwindon Town

4.98

20%

Home win

4.98

20%

Draw

1.67

60%

Away win

Goals Markets

85%

Over 1.5

1.18

15%

Under 1.5

6.67

66%

Over 2.5

1.52

34%

Under 2.5

2.94

44%

Over 3.5

2.27

56%

Under 3.5

1.79

25%

Over 4.5

4.00

75%

Under 4.5

1.33

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

62%

BTTS Yes

1.61

38%

BTTS No

2.63

Clean Sheet

11%

Newport County

8.92

30%

Swindon Town

3.32

Win to Nil

2%

Newport County

44.36

18%

Swindon Town

5.55

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.4 7.4 8.1 5.9 3.2 1.4
1 4.1 8.9 9.7 7.1 3.9 1.7
2 2.4 5.3 5.8 4.2 2.3 1.0
3 1.0 2.1 2.3 1.7 0.9 0.4
4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.200
λ Away (xG) 2.188
Total xG 3.388
League avg home goals 1.308
League avg away goals 1.169
Newport County attack strength 0.899
Newport County defence strength 1.325
Swindon Town attack strength 1.412
Swindon Town defence strength 1.021
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 56