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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Newport County and Notts County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 1, as Newport County and Notts County drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.13 xG and Notts County 1.34 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Notts County attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 31% | Draw 28% | Notts County 41%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 56%, Notts County 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Notts County's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights