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Notts County cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Newport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Newport County 0-2 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.55 xG and Notts County 1.51 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Newport County fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 1.16 / defence 1.11 against Notts County attack 1.29 / defence 1.06, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 39% | Draw 24% | Notts County 37%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Notts County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 62%, Notts County 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Notts County's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newport County 1.20 PPG, Notts County 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Notts County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights