Newport County 1-3 Notts County – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Newport County at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newport County vs Notts County encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Newport County welcome Notts County to Rodney Parade in League Two (matchday 33). Kick-off is Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Newport County stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Newport County at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Notts County — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Notts County have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Newport County are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Newport County's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Newport County, 1 for Notts County and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2023, ended Newport County 0–3 Notts County — a Notts County win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Newport County trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Notts County trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Newport County 60% and Notts County 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Newport County 63% | Notts County 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 2.37 xG and Notts County 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 1.084 / defence 0.967 | Notts County attack 1.114 / defence 1.514. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.320. Notts County's defence rating of 1.514 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Newport County's projected output up. Data: built from Newport County's last 76 games and Notts County's last 30.

Result probabilities: Newport County 58% | Draw 20% | Notts County 22%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 1.72 | Draw 5.05 | Notts County 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Newport County (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.37 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Newport County at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Newport County's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Newport County 80% (last 10 home games) | Notts County 80% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights