Crawley Town 1-1 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Walsall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Walsall make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Broadfield Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Walsall's overall League Two record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Walsall have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Walsall are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Crawley Town register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Walsall in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Crawley Town 1W, Walsall 1W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Walsall 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Walsall 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.76 xG and Walsall 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.018 / defence 1.123 | Walsall attack 1.179 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.320. Data: 75 Crawley Town games / 75 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 39% | Draw 23% | Walsall 38%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Walsall 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Walsall (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 70% | Walsall 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 39% | Draw 23% | Walsall 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Crawley Town 1.76 / Walsall 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.018 / def 1.123 | Walsall attack 1.179 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Walsall xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Walsall kick off?
Crawley Town vs Walsall kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Crawley Town 1 - 1 Walsall.
Where is Crawley Town vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Walsall part of?
Crawley Town vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 39% chance of winning, Walsall a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Crawley Town and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Walsall?
Record (5 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 3 | Walsall 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Walsall in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Walsall (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.02x the league average against Walsall's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Walsall's attack (1.18x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
39%
2.57
23%
4.37
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
3.51
1.75
Walsall xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
7%
14.79
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.75 for Walsall, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crawley Town come into this having played 75 games, going 23W 16D 36L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Walsall sit at 1.24 PPG from 75 outings (22W 27D 26L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.24 for Walsall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Crawley Town's home form reads 17W 7D 14L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Walsall have taken 0.89 points per game from 38 outings (7W 13D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.17 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 75 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Walsall in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 23W 16D 36L in their last 75 games (1.13 PPG), while Walsall have gone 22W 27D 26L in their last 75 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Walsall away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.53 PPG; Walsall away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Walsall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
6
Draws
1
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Walsall?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Walsall have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Walsall 0-0 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 60%, Walsall 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Crawley Town) and 53% (Walsall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Walsall in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Walsall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Crawley Town's games and 60% of Walsall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Crawley Town's matches and 53% of Walsall's.
Do Crawley Town and Walsall tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Walsall in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Walsall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Crawley Town and Walsall drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.76 xG and Walsall 1.75 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.02 / defence 1.12 against Walsall attack 1.18 / defence 1.20, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 39% | Draw 23% | Walsall 38%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Walsall 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (75 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Walsall's trading profile (75 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.13 PPG, Walsall 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.