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Prediction vindicated as Newport County edge out Morecambe 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newport County beat Morecambe 2-1 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.47 xG and Morecambe 1.06 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 1.12 / defence 1.17 against Morecambe attack 0.80 / defence 1.01, drawn from 73/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 45% | Draw 28% | Morecambe 26%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 60%, Morecambe 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Morecambe's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newport County 1.16 PPG, Morecambe 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newport County win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights