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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Newport County defy the odds to beat Harrogate Town 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newport County beat Harrogate Town 2-1 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 0.97 xG and Harrogate Town 1.38 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Newport County beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.77 / defence 1.22 against Harrogate Town attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 26% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 46%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Newport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 56%, Harrogate Town 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newport County 0.94 PPG, Harrogate Town 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newport County win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights