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Dominant Newport County run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newport County beat Harrogate Town 3-0 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.32 xG and Harrogate Town 0.91 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Newport County beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Harrogate Town landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 1.05 / defence 1.17 against Harrogate Town attack 0.72 / defence 0.98, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 46% | Draw 28% | Harrogate Town 26%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 62%, Harrogate Town 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newport County 1.20 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newport County win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights