Newport County vs Gillingham – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Newport County at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newport County vs Gillingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Newport County and Gillingham meet at Rodney Parade in League Two, Regular Season - 44. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 27 April 2027 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Newport County have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Newport County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Newport County at Rodney Parade this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Gillingham's overall League Two record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Gillingham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gillingham away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Newport County, 1.00 for Gillingham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Newport County are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 2, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 2–3 with Gillingham winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Newport County and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Newport County — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Gillingham — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 56% versus Gillingham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 60% | Gillingham 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 1.51 xG and Gillingham 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 1.136 / defence 1.083 | Gillingham attack 0.844 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.109. Data: 50 Newport County games / 50 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newport County 47% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 24%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Gillingham 4.17. Newport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Newport County at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newport County if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Newport County 50% | Gillingham 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Apr 2027, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 47% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Newport County 1.51 / Gillingham 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 1.136 / def 1.083 | Gillingham attack 0.844 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Newport County (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Gillingham xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newport County vs Gillingham kick off?
Newport County vs Gillingham is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 27 April 2027 at Rodney Parade.
Where is Newport County vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Gillingham part of?
Newport County vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 47% chance of winning, Gillingham a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Newport County and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Newport County vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Gillingham?
Record (8 meetings): Newport County 6W | Draws 0 | Gillingham 2W.
What form are Newport County and Gillingham in?
Newport County (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Gillingham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Newport County's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.84x) against Newport County's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.52
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Newport County xG
Total xG
2.53
1.01
Gillingham xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
5%
18.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Newport County and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Newport County and 1.01 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Newport County's recent record stands at 13W 8D 29L from 50 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Newport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gillingham, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 20L across 50 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Gillingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Newport County against 1.12 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Newport County have managed 7W 5D 13L from 25 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gillingham's away record stands at 5W 9D 11L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Newport County are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.10 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Early Season
Gillingham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newport County and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 13W 8D 29L in their last 50 games (0.94 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 13W 17D 20L in their last 50 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Gillingham away?
Newport County's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 1.04 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Gillingham have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newport County have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Newport County
0
Draws
2
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Gillingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Newport County have won 6, Gillingham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newport County and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Gillingham 3-2 Newport County.
Who has won more matches between Newport County and Gillingham?
Newport County have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Newport County see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newport County 52%, Gillingham 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Newport County) and 40% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Newport County have failed to score in 36% of games; Gillingham in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newport County play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Newport County's recent matches and 44% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newport County vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Newport County's recent games and 40% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.