🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Gillingham cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Newport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gillingham beat Newport County 1-3 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 9, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.04 xG and Gillingham 1.44 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gillingham outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.94 / defence 1.23 against Gillingham attack 1.03 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 27% | Draw 26% | Gillingham 46%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 56%, Gillingham 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Gillingham's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Gillingham arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Newport County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights