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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Newport County cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gillingham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newport County beat Gillingham 3-1 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.16 xG and Gillingham 0.88 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Newport County beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.96 / defence 1.19 against Gillingham attack 0.69 / defence 0.95, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 42% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 28%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 61%, Gillingham 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Gillingham's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newport County 1.20 PPG, Gillingham 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newport County win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. Gillingham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights