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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Newport County cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crewe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newport County beat Crewe 2-0 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 0.95 xG and Crewe 1.67 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Newport County beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crewe landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.76 / defence 1.32 against Crewe attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 21% | Draw 25% | Crewe 54%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Newport County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 56%, Crewe 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Crewe's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Newport County winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Newport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights