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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Colchester cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Newport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Newport County 0-2 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.18 xG and Colchester 1.11 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Newport County fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Colchester outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Colchester attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 37% | Draw 29% | Colchester 34%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Colchester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 61%, Colchester 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Colchester's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newport County 1.17 PPG, Colchester 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights