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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Newport County edge out Carlisle 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newport County beat Carlisle 1-0 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.69 xG and Carlisle 1.04 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Carlisle landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 1.14 / defence 1.16 against Carlisle attack 0.78 / defence 1.11, drawn from 75/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 52% | Draw 26% | Carlisle 22%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 61%, Carlisle 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Carlisle's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Newport County arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Newport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights