Newport County 0-2 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cambridge United at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newport County vs Cambridge United encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Cambridge United travel to Rodney Parade to take on Newport County in League Two (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Newport County stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Newport County's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Cambridge United have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Cambridge United have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Cambridge United's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Newport County's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Newport County have won 0, Cambridge United 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Newport County 0–2 Cambridge United — a Cambridge United win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Newport County trading profile (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Cambridge United trading profile (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 49% versus Cambridge United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 56% | Cambridge United 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 0.90 xG and Cambridge United 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 0.864 / defence 1.208 | Cambridge United attack 1.048 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.174. Newport County's defence rating of 1.208 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cambridge United's projected output up. Data: built from Newport County's last 78 games and Cambridge United's last 32.

Result probabilities: Newport County 23% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 51%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 4.36 | Draw 3.81 | Cambridge United 1.97. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cambridge United are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambridge United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Newport County 40% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 40% (last 10 away games).

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