🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Newport County 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Newport County 1-2 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 24, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.41 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.42 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 1.26 / defence 1.16 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.04 / defence 0.83, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 36% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 36%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual AFC Wimbledon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 60%, AFC Wimbledon 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (68 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (68 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newport County 1.19 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights