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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Accrington ST run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Newport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Accrington ST beat Newport County 1-4 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.02 xG and Accrington ST 1.12 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Accrington ST outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against Accrington ST attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newport County 33% | Draw 30% | Accrington ST 38%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 57%, Accrington ST 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newport County's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Accrington ST's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newport County 0.96 PPG, Accrington ST 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights