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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Salford City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Morecambe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Morecambe 1-3 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.03 xG and Salford City 1.45 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Salford City outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against Salford City attack 1.22 / defence 0.92, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Morecambe 26% | Draw 28% | Salford City 46%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 52%, Salford City 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Morecambe's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Salford City's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Morecambe 1.09 PPG, Salford City 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Morecambe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights