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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Harrogate Town defy the odds to beat Morecambe 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Morecambe 1-2 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.12 xG and Harrogate Town 0.90 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Harrogate Town outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Harrogate Town attack 0.69 / defence 0.98, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Morecambe 40% | Draw 32% | Harrogate Town 28%, with Morecambe to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Harrogate Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 53%, Harrogate Town 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Morecambe's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Morecambe 1.07 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights