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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Carlisle cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Morecambe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carlisle beat Morecambe 0-2 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.39 xG and Carlisle 0.72 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Morecambe fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Carlisle outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Carlisle attack 0.66 / defence 1.14, drawn from 87/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Morecambe 53% | Draw 28% | Carlisle 19%, with Morecambe to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Carlisle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 53%, Carlisle 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Morecambe's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Carlisle's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Morecambe 1.11 PPG, Carlisle 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carlisle win broke the near-deadlock. Morecambe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights