Harrogate Town 0-1 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swindon Town at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Harrogate Town host Swindon Town at Exercise Stadium in League Two (matchday 25). Kick-off is Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Harrogate Town — last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Harrogate Town's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 home games (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Swindon Town stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Swindon Town have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Swindon Town — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, Harrogate Town have won 2, Swindon Town 3, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Harrogate Town 1–3 Swindon Town — a Swindon Town win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Harrogate Town trading profile (last 74 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Swindon Town trading profile (last 74 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 43% versus Swindon Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 39% | Swindon Town 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Harrogate Town surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Swindon Town have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 0.69 xG and Swindon Town 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 0.574 / defence 1.461 | Swindon Town attack 1.105 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.229. Harrogate Town's attack rating of 0.574 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Harrogate Town's defence rating of 1.461 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swindon Town's projected output up. Data: built from Harrogate Town's last 75 games and Swindon Town's last 74.
Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 12% | Draw 20% | Swindon Town 68%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 8.28 | Draw 4.97 | Swindon Town 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Swindon Town (68%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swindon Town are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Harrogate Town 20% (last 10 home games) | Swindon Town 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 25 | Venue: Exercise Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Harrogate Town 12% | Draw 20% | Swindon Town 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Harrogate Town 0.69 / Swindon Town 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Harrogate Town attack 0.574 / def 1.461 | Swindon Town attack 1.105 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Harrogate Town xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Swindon Town xG
43%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town FAQs
What time does Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town kick off?
Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at Exercise Stadium.
What was the final score in Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town?
Harrogate Town 0 - 1 Swindon Town.
Where is Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at Exercise Stadium.
What competition is Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town part of?
Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Harrogate Town a 12% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 68% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Harrogate Town and Swindon Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Harrogate Town's attack at 0.57x the league average against Swindon Town's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Harrogate Town's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Harrogate Town's last 75 games and Swindon Town's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
12%
8.28
20%
4.97
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.5%
Away win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Harrogate Town xG
Total xG
2.68
1.98
Swindon Town xG
8.28
12%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
14%
7.27
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
2%
60.20
34%
2.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Harrogate Town and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Harrogate Town and 1.98 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Harrogate Town have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 18W 17D 39L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Swindon Town's form line: 30W 21D 23L from 74 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Swindon Town are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Harrogate Town.
Venue Form
On home soil, Harrogate Town have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 36 home games (12W 5D 19L).
On the road, Swindon Town have gone 13W 9D 14L from their last 36 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Harrogate Town are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.58 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Harrogate Town
Current Season
Swindon Town
Current Season
Harrogate Town (Home) vs Swindon Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Harrogate Town
Current Season
Swindon Town
Current Season
❓ Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town Form FAQs
What form are Harrogate Town and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Harrogate Town have gone 18W 17D 39L in their last 74 games (0.96 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 30W 21D 23L in their last 74 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Harrogate Town at home or Swindon Town away?
Swindon Town's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Harrogate Town at home: 1.14 PPG; Swindon Town away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 3 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Swindon Town have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2022, when Swindon Town won Harrogate Town 1-4 Swindon Town.
Harrogate Town's record when hosting Swindon Town specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Harrogate Town
4
Draws
4
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Swindon Town?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Harrogate Town have won 2, Swindon Town have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Harrogate Town and Swindon Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2026: Harrogate Town 0-1 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Harrogate Town and Swindon Town?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Harrogate Town 42%, Swindon Town 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Harrogate Town) and 58% (Swindon Town).
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Harrogate Town home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Harrogate Town and Swindon Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Harrogate Town's recent matches and 58% of Swindon Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Harrogate Town and Swindon Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Harrogate Town's recent games and 58% of Swindon Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Harrogate Town and Swindon Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Harrogate Town's recent matches and 81% of Swindon Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swindon Town edge out Harrogate Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Harrogate Town 0-1 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.69 xG and Swindon Town 1.98 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Swindon Town landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.57 / defence 1.46 against Swindon Town attack 1.10 / defence 0.95, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 12% | Draw 20% | Swindon Town 68%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 39%, Swindon Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Harrogate Town's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Swindon Town's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Swindon Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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