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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Harrogate Town defy the odds to beat Swindon Town 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Swindon Town 1-0 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.17 xG and Swindon Town 1.52 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Swindon Town landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.76 / defence 1.13 against Swindon Town attack 1.20 / defence 1.16, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 28% | Draw 27% | Swindon Town 45%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Harrogate Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 46%, Swindon Town 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Swindon Town's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.21 PPG, Swindon Town 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Swindon Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights