🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Harrogate Town cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Shrewsbury 2-0 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.85 xG and Shrewsbury 1.19 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shrewsbury landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Shrewsbury attack 0.92 / defence 1.56, drawn from 54/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 53% | Draw 23% | Shrewsbury 25%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 41%, Shrewsbury 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Harrogate Town arrived the stronger side — 1.13 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights