Harrogate Town 0-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salford City at 54% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Harrogate Town vs Salford City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Exercise Stadium plays host to Harrogate Town versus Salford City in League Two (matchday 37). Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Harrogate Town have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Harrogate Town at home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Salford City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Salford City away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Harrogate Town, 1.20 for Salford City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Salford City have the stronger record — 6 wins to Harrogate Town's 1, with 2 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2025, ended Harrogate Town 0–1 Salford City — a Salford City win.
Salford City have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Harrogate Town — key trading statistics (last 82 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Salford City — key trading statistics (last 82 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 44% versus Salford City 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 38% | Salford City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 0.87 xG and Salford City 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 0.639 / defence 1.207 | Salford City attack 1.101 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.189. Harrogate Town's attack rating of 0.639 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Harrogate Town's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Salford City's projected output up. Data: built from Harrogate Town's last 82 games and Salford City's last 82.
Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 21% | Draw 25% | Salford City 54%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 4.83 | Draw 3.96 | Salford City 1.85. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Salford City 6 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Harrogate Town 30% (last 10 home games) | Salford City 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Harrogate Town vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, matchday 37 | Venue: Exercise Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Harrogate Town 21% | Draw 25% | Salford City 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Harrogate Town 0.87 / Salford City 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Harrogate Town attack 0.639 / def 1.207 | Salford City attack 1.101 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Salford City (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Harrogate Town xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Salford City xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Harrogate Town vs Salford City FAQs
What time does Harrogate Town vs Salford City kick off?
Harrogate Town vs Salford City kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Exercise Stadium.
What was the final score in Harrogate Town vs Salford City?
Harrogate Town 0 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Harrogate Town vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Exercise Stadium.
What competition is Harrogate Town vs Salford City part of?
Harrogate Town vs Salford City is a League Two fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Harrogate Town vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Harrogate Town a 21% chance of winning, Salford City a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Harrogate Town and Salford City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Harrogate Town vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Harrogate Town's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Salford City's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (1.10x) against Harrogate Town's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from Harrogate Town's last 82 games and Salford City's last 82 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
21%
4.83
25%
3.96
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Harrogate Town xG
Total xG
2.45
1.58
Salford City xG
4.83
21%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
4%
23.49
23%
4.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.6 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Harrogate Town vs Salford City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Harrogate Town vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Harrogate Town and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Harrogate Town and 1.58 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Harrogate Town vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Harrogate Town come into this having played 82 games, going 20W 20D 42L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Salford City sit at 1.59 PPG from 82 outings (37W 19D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Salford City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Harrogate Town's home form reads 13W 7D 21L across their last 41 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Salford City have taken 1.51 points per game from their last 41 away games (17W 11D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Harrogate Town are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.39 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Harrogate Town
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
Harrogate Town (Home) vs Salford City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Harrogate Town
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Harrogate Town vs Salford City Form FAQs
What form are Harrogate Town and Salford City in coming into this match?
Harrogate Town have gone 20W 20D 42L in their last 82 games (0.98 PPG), while Salford City have gone 37W 19D 26L in their last 82 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Harrogate Town at home or Salford City away?
Salford City's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Harrogate Town at home: 1.12 PPG; Salford City away: 1.51 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Salford City have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Harrogate Town have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Harrogate Town
2
Draws
7
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Harrogate Town vs Salford City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Salford City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Harrogate Town have won 1, Salford City have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Harrogate Town and Salford City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Harrogate Town 0-1 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Harrogate Town and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Harrogate Town 42%, Salford City 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Harrogate Town) and 49% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Harrogate Town home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Harrogate Town vs Salford City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Harrogate Town and Salford City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Harrogate Town's recent matches and 61% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Harrogate Town and Salford City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Harrogate Town's recent games and 49% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Harrogate Town and Salford City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Harrogate Town's recent matches and 68% of Salford City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Harrogate Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Harrogate Town 0-1 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.87 xG and Salford City 1.58 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Harrogate Town fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.64 / defence 1.21 against Salford City attack 1.10 / defence 1.10, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 21% | Draw 25% | Salford City 54%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 38%, Salford City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Harrogate Town's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salford City's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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