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Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Harrogate Town 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Salford City beat Harrogate Town 0-1 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.87 xG and Salford City 1.58 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Harrogate Town fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.64 / defence 1.21 against Salford City attack 1.10 / defence 1.10, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 21% | Draw 25% | Salford City 54%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 38%, Salford City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Salford City's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights