🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Notts County cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Harrogate Town 1-3 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.27 xG and Notts County 1.39 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Notts County outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against Notts County attack 1.18 / defence 0.94, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 33% | Draw 27% | Notts County 39%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 46%, Notts County 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Notts County's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.26 PPG, Notts County 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights