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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Harrogate Town and Grimsby share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 42, as Harrogate Town and Grimsby drew 2-2 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.22 xG and Grimsby 1.34 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against Grimsby attack 1.13 / defence 1.01, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 34% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 39%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 44%, Grimsby 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Grimsby's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.24 PPG, Grimsby 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grimsby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights