🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Harrogate Town cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fleetwood Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Fleetwood Town 3-1 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.66 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.51 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Harrogate Town beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.24 / defence 1.31, drawn from 89/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 41% | Draw 25% | Fleetwood Town 34%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 45%, Fleetwood Town 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.24 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights