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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Harrogate Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Harrogate Town 1-2 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.07 xG and Crewe 1.23 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Crewe attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 32% | Draw 28% | Crewe 40%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 39%, Crewe 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Crewe's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.20 PPG, Crewe 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights