🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Chesterfield defy the odds to beat Harrogate Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Harrogate Town 1-2 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.69 xG and Chesterfield 1.31 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 1.19 / defence 1.10 against Chesterfield attack 1.05 / defence 1.11, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 46% | Draw 25% | Chesterfield 29%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Chesterfield win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 40%, Chesterfield 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Chesterfield's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.22 PPG, Chesterfield 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights