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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Harrogate Town and Cheltenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 35, as Harrogate Town and Cheltenham drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.99 xG and Cheltenham 1.25 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.62 / defence 1.24 against Cheltenham attack 0.85 / defence 1.28, drawn from 80/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 29% | Draw 29% | Cheltenham 42%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 37%, Cheltenham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Cheltenham's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.00 PPG, Cheltenham 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cheltenham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights