Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AFC Wimbledon run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Harrogate Town 0-3 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.10 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.38 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Harrogate Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.01 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 29% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 43%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 49%, AFC Wimbledon 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.29 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights