Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Harrogate Town's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Harrogate Town's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
29%
3.43
28%
3.53
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Harrogate Town xG
Total xG
2.48
1.38
AFC Wimbledon xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Harrogate Town and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Harrogate Town and 1.38 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Harrogate Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.