Harrogate Town vs Accrington ST – Match Report

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Harrogate Town defy the odds to beat Accrington ST 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Harrogate Town beat Accrington ST 2-1 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.10 xG and Accrington ST 1.10 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Harrogate Town beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.78 / defence 1.04 against Accrington ST attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 35% | Draw 30% | Accrington ST 35%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 45%, Accrington ST 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Harrogate Town's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Accrington ST's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.19 PPG, Accrington ST 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights