Grimsby 5-2 York – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grimsby at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grimsby vs York fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 14 as Grimsby welcome York to Blundell Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Grimsby have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grimsby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grimsby have posted 5W 1D 4L at Blundell Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
York — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, York have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Grimsby 1.20 PPG, York 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Grimsby in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
York in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grimsby 54% and York 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grimsby 54% | York 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grimsby 1.52 xG and York 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grimsby attack 0.948 / defence 1.035 | York attack 0.807 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.103. Data: 59 Grimsby games / 13 York games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grimsby 49% | Draw 30% | York 21%. Fair-value odds: Grimsby 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | York 4.76. Grimsby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grimsby at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grimsby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Grimsby 50% | York 83% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grimsby vs York | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Blundell Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grimsby 49% | Draw 30% | York 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Grimsby 1.52 / York 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Grimsby attack 0.948 / def 1.035 | York attack 0.807 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Grimsby (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Grimsby xG
Expected Goals
0.92
York xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grimsby vs York kick off?
Grimsby vs York kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Blundell Park.
What was the final score in Grimsby vs York?
Grimsby 5 - 2 York.
Where is Grimsby vs York being played?
The match is being played at Blundell Park.
What competition is Grimsby vs York part of?
Grimsby vs York is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Grimsby vs York?
Our statistical model gives Grimsby a 49% chance of winning, York a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Grimsby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs York?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Grimsby and York will score (BTTS).
Will Grimsby vs York have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and York?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Grimsby and York in?
Grimsby (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. York (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Grimsby's attack rating (0.95) and York's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York's attack versus Grimsby's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grimsby Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.34
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Grimsby xG
Total xG
2.44
0.92
York xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
5%
21.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grimsby vs York?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Grimsby and York expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Grimsby and 0.92 for York, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Grimsby vs York?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grimsby's recent record stands at 4W 5D 4L from 13 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Grimsby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 3L across 13 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for York is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grimsby on 1.31 PPG, York on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Grimsby have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of York's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grimsby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grimsby are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; York are on 1.69 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York in 69%.
Last 13 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grimsby
Blended
York
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grimsby and York in coming into this match?
Grimsby have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while York have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grimsby at home or York away?
Grimsby's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grimsby at home: 1.67 PPG; York away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Grimsby or York been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grimsby have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, York in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Grimsby
0
Draws
0
York
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and York?
From 1 meetings on record, Grimsby have won 1, York have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Grimsby and York last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Grimsby 5-2 York.
Who has won more matches between Grimsby and York?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
York are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grimsby 33%, York 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Grimsby and 33% for York.
On the defensive side: Grimsby keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grimsby home games / York away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grimsby play York?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Grimsby's games and 83% of York's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grimsby vs York usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Grimsby's recent games and 33% of York's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grimsby and York tend to score early?
Grimsby have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, York in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Grimsby run riot with a 5-2 hammering of York.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grimsby beat York 5-2 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.52 xG and York 0.92 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Grimsby beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. York outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against York attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 59/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grimsby 49% | Draw 30% | York 21%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 54%, York 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grimsby's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
York's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grimsby 1.31 PPG, York 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grimsby win broke the near-deadlock. Grimsby (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. York (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.