🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Grimsby cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Morecambe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grimsby beat Morecambe 3-1 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.25 xG and Morecambe 0.85 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Grimsby beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Morecambe attack 0.73 / defence 1.09, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grimsby 45% | Draw 29% | Morecambe 25%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 51%, Morecambe 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grimsby's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Morecambe's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grimsby 1.29 PPG, Morecambe 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grimsby win broke the near-deadlock. Grimsby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Morecambe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights