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Prediction vindicated as Grimsby edge out Carlisle 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grimsby beat Carlisle 2-1 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.57 xG and Carlisle 1.09 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 1.08 / defence 1.20 against Carlisle attack 0.78 / defence 1.08, drawn from 75/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grimsby 47% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 26%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 53%, Carlisle 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grimsby's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Carlisle's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Grimsby arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights