Gillingham 0-0 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Walsall at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gillingham vs Walsall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 38 as Gillingham welcome Walsall to Priestfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gillingham stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gillingham's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Priestfield Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League Two games this season, Walsall have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Walsall away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Gillingham) versus 1.10 (Walsall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gillingham, 2 for Walsall and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gillingham in-play tendencies (82 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Walsall in-play tendencies (82 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 42% versus Walsall 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 35% | Walsall 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.03 xG and Walsall 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.772 / defence 0.971 | Walsall attack 1.163 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.083. Gillingham's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 82 Gillingham games / 83 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 31% | Draw 29% | Walsall 41%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Walsall 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Walsall are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Walsall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gillingham 40% | Walsall 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 31% | Draw 29% | Walsall 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Gillingham 1.03 / Walsall 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.772 / def 0.971 | Walsall attack 1.163 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Walsall (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Walsall xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Walsall kick off?
Gillingham vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 March 2025 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Walsall?
Gillingham 0 - 0 Walsall.
Where is Gillingham vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Walsall part of?
Gillingham vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 31% chance of winning, Walsall a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gillingham and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Walsall?
Record (5 meetings): Gillingham 0W | Draws 3 | Walsall 2W.
What form are Gillingham and Walsall in?
Gillingham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Walsall (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.77x the league average against Walsall's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
31%
3.24
29%
3.50
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.25
1.22
Walsall xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.22 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 82 outings, Gillingham have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 29W 19D 34L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Walsall's form line: 38W 20D 24L from 82 games, 1.63 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gillingham on 1.29 PPG, Walsall on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gillingham have posted 1.48 PPG from 40 outings (16W 11D 13L).
On the road, Walsall have gone 14W 10D 16L from 40 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gillingham are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.65 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Walsall in 62%.
Last 82 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Walsall in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 29W 19D 34L in their last 82 games (1.29 PPG), while Walsall have gone 38W 20D 24L in their last 82 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Walsall away?
Gillingham's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.48 PPG; Walsall away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Walsall in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Oct 2023, when Walsall won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gillingham's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Gillingham
5
Draws
3
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Walsall?
From 9 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 1, Walsall have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Gillingham 0-3 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Walsall?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 42%, Walsall 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gillingham) and 58% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gillingham have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gillingham's recent matches and 58% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gillingham's recent games and 58% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Walsall tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Walsall in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gillingham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 38, as Gillingham and Walsall drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.03 xG and Walsall 1.22 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gillingham fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Walsall landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.77 / defence 0.97 against Walsall attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 82/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 31% | Draw 29% | Walsall 41%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 35%, Walsall 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Walsall's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.29 PPG, Walsall 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.02 average — tighter than their form line. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.