Gillingham vs Salford City – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Gillingham edge out Salford City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gillingham beat Salford City 1-0 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.22 xG and Salford City 1.12 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salford City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Salford City attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gillingham 37% | Draw 30% | Salford City 33%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 36%, Salford City 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gillingham's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Salford City's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.38 PPG, Salford City 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights