Gillingham vs Salford City – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gillingham's attack rating (0.95) and Salford City's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gillingham Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.37
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.34
1.12
Salford City xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.12 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.