🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Gillingham edge out Notts County 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gillingham beat Notts County 1-0 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.44 xG and Notts County 0.90 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Notts County landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 1.20 / defence 0.72 against Notts County attack 1.09 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gillingham 50% | Draw 27% | Notts County 24%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 28%, Notts County 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gillingham's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Notts County's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.38 PPG, Notts County 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights