Gillingham 1-2 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Notts County at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gillingham vs Notts County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gillingham welcome Notts County to Priestfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Gillingham — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Gillingham have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Notts County have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Notts County's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form points away from home here. Notts County's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Gillingham's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Gillingham, 1 for Notts County and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Gillingham 1–0 Notts County — a Gillingham win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Notts County in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 40% versus Notts County 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 35% | Notts County 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.12 xG and Notts County 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.811 / defence 1.096 | Notts County attack 1.388 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.130. Notts County have an above-average attack rating of 1.388, which lifts their away xG to 1.72. Data: built from Gillingham's last 72 games and Notts County's last 73.
Result probabilities: Gillingham 24% | Draw 26% | Notts County 50%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 4.23 | Draw 3.80 | Notts County 2.00. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Gillingham's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Gillingham 30% (last 10 home games) | Notts County 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, matchday 30 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 24% | Draw 26% | Notts County 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Gillingham 1.12 / Notts County 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.811 / def 1.096 | Notts County attack 1.388 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Notts County (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Notts County xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gillingham vs Notts County FAQs
What time does Gillingham vs Notts County kick off?
Gillingham vs Notts County kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Notts County?
Gillingham 1 - 2 Notts County.
Where is Gillingham vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Notts County part of?
Gillingham vs Notts County is a League Two fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 24% chance of winning, Notts County a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gillingham and Notts County will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gillingham vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gillingham's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Notts County's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gillingham's last 72 games and Notts County's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
24%
4.23
26%
3.80
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.84
1.72
Notts County xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
4%
23.61
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gillingham vs Notts County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.72 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gillingham's recent record stands at 27W 15D 30L from 72 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Notts County, meanwhile, have gone 31W 15D 26L across 72 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gillingham on 1.33 PPG, Notts County on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gillingham have managed 15W 10D 11L from their last 36 home games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Notts County's away record stands at 12W 10D 14L across their last 36 away games, a 1.28 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Gillingham are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.82 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Blended
Notts County
Blended
Gillingham (Home) vs Notts County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gillingham
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Gillingham vs Notts County Form FAQs
What form are Gillingham and Notts County in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 27W 15D 30L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Notts County have gone 31W 15D 26L in their last 72 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Notts County away?
Gillingham's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.53 PPG; Notts County away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Notts County in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 3 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gillingham's record when hosting Notts County specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gillingham
0
Draws
3
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Gillingham vs Notts County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Notts County?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Gillingham have won 3, Notts County have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Notts County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2026: Notts County 1-0 Gillingham.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 42%, Notts County 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Gillingham) and 58% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gillingham have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gillingham vs Notts County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gillingham and Notts County matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gillingham's recent matches and 64% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gillingham and Notts County matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Gillingham's recent games and 58% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Notts County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Gillingham's recent matches and 81% of Notts County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Gillingham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Gillingham 1-2 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.12 xG and Notts County 1.72 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Notts County attack 1.39 / defence 1.06, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 24% | Draw 26% | Notts County 50%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 35%, Notts County 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Notts County's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.33 PPG, Notts County 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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