AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon and Bradford meet at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bradford's overall League Two record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 2.30 for Bradford. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AFC Wimbledon lead 0W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 40% versus Bradford 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 38% | Bradford 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.41 xG and Bradford 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.061 / defence 0.781 | Bradford attack 0.951 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.123. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 AFC Wimbledon games / 73 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 30% | Bradford 21%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Bradford 4.76. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 30% | Bradford 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 30% | Bradford 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.41 / Bradford 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.061 / def 0.781 | Bradford attack 0.951 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Bradford xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 0 Bradford.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 49% chance of winning, Bradford a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Bradford?
Record (5 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 4 | Bradford 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Bradford in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Bradford (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AFC Wimbledon's attack at 1.06x the league average against Bradford's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (0.95x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 72/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
49%
2.02
30%
3.38
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.25
0.83
Bradford xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
5%
19.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.83 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AFC Wimbledon come into this having played 72 games, going 30W 20D 22L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.61 PPG from 72 outings (32W 20D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.61 for Bradford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AFC Wimbledon's home form reads 19W 8D 8L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.37 points per game from 35 outings (13W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.38 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Bradford in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 30W 20D 22L in their last 72 games (1.53 PPG), while Bradford have gone 32W 20D 20L in their last 72 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Bradford away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.86 PPG; Bradford away: 1.37 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bradford in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
AFC Wimbledon
4
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Bradford?
From 8 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, Bradford have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 3-1 Bradford.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 43%, Bradford 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (AFC Wimbledon) and 54% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 60% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 54% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Bradford tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Bradford in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Bradford 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Bradford 1-0 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.41 xG and Bradford 0.83 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bradford landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.06 / defence 0.78 against Bradford attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 30% | Bradford 21%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 38%, Bradford 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bradford's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.53 PPG, Bradford 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.