🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

AFC Wimbledon and Bradford meet at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

AFC Wimbledon (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Bradford's overall League Two record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bradford away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 2.30 for Bradford. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — AFC Wimbledon lead 0W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 40% versus Bradford 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 38% | Bradford 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.41 xG and Bradford 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.061 / defence 0.781 | Bradford attack 0.951 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.123. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 AFC Wimbledon games / 73 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 30% | Bradford 21%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Bradford 4.76. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 30% | Bradford 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights