🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Gillingham edge out Crewe 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gillingham beat Crewe 1-0 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.33 xG and Crewe 1.20 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crewe landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 1.19 / defence 0.80 against Crewe attack 1.34 / defence 0.87, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gillingham 39% | Draw 28% | Crewe 33%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 28%, Crewe 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gillingham's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Crewe's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.32 PPG, Crewe 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights