Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Fleetwood Town (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fleetwood Town face Accrington ST.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Highbury Stadium plays host to Fleetwood Town versus Accrington ST in League Two, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fleetwood Town have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fleetwood Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood Town have gone 2W 7D 1L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Accrington ST (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Accrington ST have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Accrington ST's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Fleetwood Town's favour (1.20 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Fleetwood Town are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Fleetwood Town winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fleetwood Town and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Fleetwood Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fleetwood Town 66% versus Accrington ST 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fleetwood Town 44% | Accrington ST 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fleetwood Town 1.43 xG and Accrington ST 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fleetwood Town attack 0.814 / defence 0.930 | Accrington ST attack 0.932 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.109. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Fleetwood Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Fleetwood Town games / 50 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 46% | Draw 29% | Accrington ST 24%. Fair-value odds: Fleetwood Town 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Accrington ST 4.17. Fleetwood Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fleetwood Town as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fleetwood Town 60% | Accrington ST 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Highbury Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 46% | Draw 29% | Accrington ST 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Fleetwood Town 1.43 / Accrington ST 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Fleetwood Town attack 0.814 / def 0.930 | Accrington ST attack 0.932 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Fleetwood Town xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Accrington ST xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST kick off?
Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Highbury Stadium.
Where is Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Highbury Stadium.
What competition is Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST part of?
Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Fleetwood Town a 46% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fleetwood Town and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Accrington ST?
Record (8 meetings): Fleetwood Town 5W | Draws 1 | Accrington ST 2W.
What form are Fleetwood Town and Accrington ST in?
Fleetwood Town (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Accrington ST (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fleetwood Town's attack rating (0.81) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.93x) against Fleetwood Town's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
46%
2.15
29%
3.39
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Fleetwood Town xG
Total xG
2.39
0.96
Accrington ST xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
6%
17.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fleetwood Town and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Fleetwood Town and 0.96 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Fleetwood Town have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 16W 19D 15L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Accrington ST's form line: 14W 13D 23L from 50 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Accrington ST, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Fleetwood Town against 1.10 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fleetwood Town have posted 1.40 PPG from 25 outings (8W 11D 6L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 5W 6D 14L from 25 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fleetwood Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.06 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fleetwood Town
Early Season
Accrington ST
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fleetwood Town and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Fleetwood Town have gone 16W 19D 15L in their last 50 games (1.34 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 14W 13D 23L in their last 50 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fleetwood Town at home or Accrington ST away?
Fleetwood Town's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fleetwood Town at home: 1.40 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fleetwood Town go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Accrington ST won 5-1 on 4 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fleetwood Town have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fleetwood Town
1
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Accrington ST?
From 8 meetings on record, Fleetwood Town have won 5, Accrington ST have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fleetwood Town and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Accrington ST 1-2 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Fleetwood Town and Accrington ST?
Fleetwood Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fleetwood Town 80%, Accrington ST 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fleetwood Town) and 40% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fleetwood Town home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fleetwood Town play Accrington ST?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Fleetwood Town's games and 40% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Fleetwood Town's recent games and 40% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fleetwood Town and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Fleetwood Town have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.