Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fleetwood Town at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fleetwood Town make the trip to The Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crawley Town have posted 1W 5D 4L at The Broadfield Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Fleetwood Town's overall League Two record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fleetwood Town's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Fleetwood Town are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crawley Town lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Fleetwood Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fleetwood Town half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 49% versus Fleetwood Town 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 46% | Fleetwood Town 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.08 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.820 / defence 1.332 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.970 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Data: 55 Crawley Town games / 57 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 32% | Fleetwood Town 40%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Fleetwood Town 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fleetwood Town as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 40% | Fleetwood Town 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 32% | Fleetwood Town 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Crawley Town 1.08 / Fleetwood Town 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.820 / def 1.332 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.970 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Fleetwood Town xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at The Broadfield Stadium.
Where is Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 28% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 0 | Fleetwood Town 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.82x the league average against Fleetwood Town's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fleetwood Town's attack (0.97x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 55/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
28%
3.53
32%
3.15
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.39
1.32
Fleetwood Town xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.32 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 9W 18D 28L from 55 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fleetwood Town, meanwhile, have gone 16W 21D 18L across 55 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fleetwood Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fleetwood Town by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 5W 11D 11L from 27 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fleetwood Town's away record stands at 7W 9D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.18 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town in 65%.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Fleetwood Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 9W 18D 28L in their last 55 games (0.82 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 16W 21D 18L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Fleetwood Town's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 0.96 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
0
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Fleetwood Town have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Fleetwood Town 1-0 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 56%, Fleetwood Town 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Crawley Town) and 37% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 30% of games; Fleetwood Town in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Crawley Town's games and 56% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Crawley Town's recent games and 37% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.